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Capital Comments: What Three Forecasts Say About Our Economic Future

Where is our economy going? Let’s ask some folks whose job it is to forecast the future of the U.S. economy. How about looking at three forecasts – one from government economists, one from academic economists, and one from business economists.

The Congressional Budget Office updated its economic forecast in July. The CBO is responsible for projecting federal revenues and costs for Congress, and the CBO needs a picture of the future of the economy to do that. If these folks are wrong, it has consequences for national policy.

The Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics is run by specialists at the University of Michigan. They put out a new forecast in August. The RSQE has been doing forecasts for almost 70 years, and their professional reputations depend on getting it right.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve surveys business economists about their economic forecasts, and publishes the averages. It surveyed 36 economists in August. If business economists aren’t right at least some of the time, they don’t get paid!

We have three respectable sources with recent forecasts, all with incentives to be right.

Learn more. 

 

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