Skip to Main Content

Warmer than average autumn expected

Current models forecast a warmer than average fall, with equal chances for above-normal, below-normal or normal amounts of precipitation.

This prediction for above-average temperatures is likely to hold, fueled by the recent warmth and ongoing drought conditions in the west heating air as it travels towards Indiana. Averaged over the three months, a temperature anomaly of about 0.5-degree Fahrenheit above average is expected. Although the statistic seems unimpressive, the individual observations of variable temperatures and extremes can be quite noticeable. Now and into the fall, the risk and symptoms of heat stress should be remembered and practices followed to reduce livestock, pet and human stress or stroke.

The precipitation outlook does not give a good indication of how conditions may play out over the autumnal months. We are currently in a La Nina Watch with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in its neutral phase. As we approach the winter, La Nina conditions are predicted to occur, with the transition occurring during the autumn months. The ENSO does not have strong indicators for Midwestern winter climates. However, with a La Nina winter, wetter than average conditions are anticipated throughout Indiana, which could fall as different types of precipitation depending on the prevailing temperatures.

Although no strong indicator for above- or below-normal precipitation conditions exist throughout the autumn, the average autumnal precipitation amounts are around 10 inches if averaged across the state, with more in the south and less in the north. With recent climate trends favoring heavier precipitation and increasing longer periods of dryness, some areas of the state may show average precipitation amounts despite only having six to 10 rain events across the three months. 

For more information on the seasonal outlook, contact Hans Schmitz at the Purdue Extension – Posey County office via or 812-838-1331 or the Indiana State Climate Office at 765-494-8060.


Featured Stories

Green corn field.
AgrAbility helps people with disabilities find success in agriculture

The National AgrAbility Project (NAP), modeled after Purdue Extension’s Breaking New Ground Resource Center and hosted at Purdue University, is celebrating 30 years of making agriculture accessible for people with disabilities.

Read More
Red grapes on vine.
Indiana wine grape harvest projected to be fruitful

Indiana wine grape growers began harvesting in late August and will continue through early October. Despite a late freeze at the beginning of the growing season, high wine grape yields are expected across the state.

Read More
Tractor in field
Purdue workshop offered for veterans in agriculture

Indiana AgrAbility, hosted at Purdue University, Purdue Extension and the Farmer Veteran Coalition-Indiana chapter, are hosting a Northwest Indiana Veteran Farmer Workshop at Pinney Purdue Agricultural Center, 11402 S. County Line Road, in...

Read More
Purdue Landscape Report: Oh What a Tangled Web They Weave!

Purdue Landscape Report: Just after the browned leaves on branches of trees attacked by periodical cicadas began to disappear from view, webworms and their associated browning started to spread through the landscape. Two of the more common...

Read More
Award winners
Indiana agriculture advocates honored for leadership, passion

Purdue Extension Women in Agriculture recognized three Indiana agriculture leaders on Aug. 5 at the Indiana State Fair. Karen Plaut, the Glenn W. Sample Dean of Agriculture, and Jason Henderson, director of Purdue Extension & senior...

Read More
Crop Report
Crop report takeaway: 'Indiana crop production doing very well'

Purdue panelists respond to USDA's August Crop Report and impacts on Indiana's cash crops

Read More
To Top