Skip to Main Content

Warmer than average autumn expected

Current models forecast a warmer than average fall, with equal chances for above-normal, below-normal or normal amounts of precipitation.

This prediction for above-average temperatures is likely to hold, fueled by the recent warmth and ongoing drought conditions in the west heating air as it travels towards Indiana. Averaged over the three months, a temperature anomaly of about 0.5-degree Fahrenheit above average is expected. Although the statistic seems unimpressive, the individual observations of variable temperatures and extremes can be quite noticeable. Now and into the fall, the risk and symptoms of heat stress should be remembered and practices followed to reduce livestock, pet and human stress or stroke.

The precipitation outlook does not give a good indication of how conditions may play out over the autumnal months. We are currently in a La Nina Watch with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in its neutral phase. As we approach the winter, La Nina conditions are predicted to occur, with the transition occurring during the autumn months. The ENSO does not have strong indicators for Midwestern winter climates. However, with a La Nina winter, wetter than average conditions are anticipated throughout Indiana, which could fall as different types of precipitation depending on the prevailing temperatures.

Although no strong indicator for above- or below-normal precipitation conditions exist throughout the autumn, the average autumnal precipitation amounts are around 10 inches if averaged across the state, with more in the south and less in the north. With recent climate trends favoring heavier precipitation and increasing longer periods of dryness, some areas of the state may show average precipitation amounts despite only having six to 10 rain events across the three months. 

For more information on the seasonal outlook, contact Hans Schmitz at the Purdue Extension – Posey County office via hschmitz@purdue.edu or 812-838-1331 or the Indiana State Climate Office at 765-494-8060.

 

Featured Stories

Lilly Cox smiling in front of a checkout counter
Confidence grown in 4-H leads to unexpected connections and career path

As the assistant manager at Growing Minds Farm Stop, Lilly Cox understands how much work running...

Read More
Cora Reinbolt smiling with a goat
Strengthening knowledge of sheep, goats through new Purdue Extension resources

Cora Reinbolt, who has been an Extension educator in Bartholomew County for six years and has...

Read More
A Black Swallowtail has landed on the top of a zinnia flower.
5 things to avoid this fall when putting your garden to bed

As tree leaves flourish into bright fall colors, home gardens are fading into collections of...

Read More
A young boy plays at the new park in Connersville, IN.
Community Unites to Build Award-Winning Park

After nine years in the making, J. Long Memorial Second Street Park made its grand opening to the...

Read More
Children celebrate in a classroom
Fueling Fun: Turning healthy choices into easy choices for students

According to 2021 data from the Centers for Disease Control, half of children in Indiana between...

Read More
People walk under the Midway arch at the Indiana State Fair.
Purdue Extension to present engaging educational activities for all at Indiana State Fair

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — The Indiana State Fair kicks off Aug. 1 and highlights the theme...

Read More
To Top