Warmer than average autumn expected

Current models forecast a warmer than average fall, with equal chances for above-normal, below-normal or normal amounts of precipitation.

This prediction for above-average temperatures is likely to hold, fueled by the recent warmth and ongoing drought conditions in the west heating air as it travels towards Indiana. Averaged over the three months, a temperature anomaly of about 0.5-degree Fahrenheit above average is expected. Although the statistic seems unimpressive, the individual observations of variable temperatures and extremes can be quite noticeable. Now and into the fall, the risk and symptoms of heat stress should be remembered and practices followed to reduce livestock, pet and human stress or stroke.

The precipitation outlook does not give a good indication of how conditions may play out over the autumnal months. We are currently in a La Nina Watch with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in its neutral phase. As we approach the winter, La Nina conditions are predicted to occur, with the transition occurring during the autumn months. The ENSO does not have strong indicators for Midwestern winter climates. However, with a La Nina winter, wetter than average conditions are anticipated throughout Indiana, which could fall as different types of precipitation depending on the prevailing temperatures.

Although no strong indicator for above- or below-normal precipitation conditions exist throughout the autumn, the average autumnal precipitation amounts are around 10 inches if averaged across the state, with more in the south and less in the north. With recent climate trends favoring heavier precipitation and increasing longer periods of dryness, some areas of the state may show average precipitation amounts despite only having six to 10 rain events across the three months.

For more information on the seasonal outlook, contact Hans Schmitz at the Purdue Extension – Posey County office via hschmitz@purdue.edu or 812-838-1331 or the Indiana State Climate Office at 765-494-8060.

Featured Stories

Richard Beckort, Brian Richert, Steve McKinley

Purdue Extension announces winners of 2024 Paul B. Crooks Award, Eric G. Sharvelle Award and Director’s Award

Purdue Extension recognized many outstanding individuals during its annual Professional...

Rachel McCarty accepting the Friend of Extension Award

2024 Friend of Extension awarded to Monroe County Extension board member and advocate

Purdue Extension presented Rachel Peden McCarty with the 2024 Friend of Extension award at this...

Two 4-H youth helping one another with homework.

Indiana 4-H Programs Help High School Youth Identify Future Career Options

Indiana 4-H includes opportunities to explore future endeavors. During school and after...

Purdue Extension Homesteading Conference

Preserving and sharing homesteading skills within Indiana communities

Interest in homesteading has grown over the past five years. Google Trends records that in...

A crop sprayer is spraying pesticides on a field.

Earning Credits Toward Certification While Learning to Safely Apply Pesticides to Field Crops

Purdue Extension held 51 workforce development programs on 33 dates and in 32 Indiana counties,...

Hoosier Hay Contest winners announced at 2024 Hay Quality Seminar

The Indiana Forage Council’s (IFC) Hoosier Hay Contest, which accepted entries from June...